The three body problem: Looking ahead
Over the next 20 years we will see all three technology categories – centralized solutions, public blockchains, and private/permissioned chains – serve as the foundation of mission-critical applications. Existing approach today, including public APIs for partners, will be upgraded through the use of private blockchain technologies, and real-time “data meshes” that span companies and clouds will become the norm, rather than a novelty. Organizations will leverage all three of these technology categories together to deliver best-of-breed IT outcomes.
The benefit of hindsight exposes common pitfalls many organizations fall into when adopting technology. Avoid the temptation to interpret media attention and “hype curve” trends incorrectly:
- Public cloud growth continues to be staggering, and will not be “replaced” by web3. Rather, best of breed solutions will employ both emerging (blockchain, web3) capabilities and existing cloud technologies.
- Public chains, despite modest optimizations, cannot violate the laws of physics. Assuming they will become a replacement for operational data stores or private chains that enjoy cloud-derived economies of scale and performance is betting against science. Carefully consider the achievable transaction rates, storage, and development costs required in using public chains, and leverage them for their unique advantages, not as a replacement for centralized or private chain data stores.
Successful companies will win by:
- Optimizing tech selection for the best outcomes, rather than pursuing a “pure play” approach (i.e., only centralized / only private / only public).
- Building as little as possible in order to focus time and energy on their unique, differentiated value add.
- Leveraging the best of cloud, central IT, and both public and private chains to minimize time to market for new and replatforming applications.
Looking to learn more about integrating centralized and blockchain capabilities for IT use cases? The Vendia blog has a number of articles, including how these features surface in modern applications and get exposed through data-aware APIs.